It is not possible to say exactly how strong the fourth wave will be in Germany. That also depends on the vaccination situation going forward. The fact is that the numbers are already rising sharply, which could lead to tough restrictions in the fall at the latest.

Requirements that tighten public life

Stricter rules will come into force from August 23: anyone wishing to visit restaurants (indoors) or hairdressing salons will have to present a negative rapid antigen test that is no more than 24 hours old or a negative PCR test that is no more than 48 hours old. In principle, we are now talking about "3G", i.e. access for vaccinated, recovered and tested persons.

Tests should be a prerequisite for access to

• hospitals
• old people's and nursing homes
• Facilities for the disabled
• Indoor catering
• Indoor events
• Hairdressers
• Fitness studios
• Swimming pools
• gyms
• A test on arrival and twice a week will be mandatory for accommodation establishments

In order to keep the vaccination campaign going, rapid tests must also be paid for out of pocket from October 11. This does not apply to people who cannot or should not be vaccinated. This group of people will continue to have access to free tests.

However, vaccinated and recovered people will also have to pay for rapid tests themselves in future, as even a full vaccination does not fully protect against the delta variant. According to a British study, a full vaccination only protects up to 50 to 60 percent against infection. Asymptomatic cases were also included.

If the incidence of infection remains low, countries can suspend the "3G rule". In other words, as long as the seven-day incidence remains stable below 35 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants or other indicators such as hospital occupancy show a low level.

2G with rising infection figures

2G will come with rising infection figures - this means that public life will become much more difficult for people who have not accepted vaccination offers. A hard lockdown will be taboo for vaccinated and recovered people. Everyone else, with the exception of people who cannot or are not allowed to be vaccinated, will probably have to expect harsh cuts as the numbers rise.